🔗 Share this article A Caution for Keir Starmer from His Own History: Without Boldness regarding Britain's EU Exit & the EU, His Party Challengers Will Be. Seven years ago, it took just eight words to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with rapturous applause as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation. As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key. In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded. The Shift in Position & Settled Debates Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures. Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion. A Lid That Rattles on the EU However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more. The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement. And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent. Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work. David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership. Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate. Starmer's Fundamental Doubts However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government. It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns. First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, including the environment. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from the EU. A Bizarre Strategy & Strategic Considerations This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties. However, instead of deciding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides. Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject. But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe. Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”. The Obvious Risk and A Wise Memory The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found. It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.