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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."